Abstract: Television advertisers are upset over the poor ratings of syndicated shows that did not live up to their 1992 ratings projections. 'Designing Women,' 'Whoopi,' 'Roseanne' and 'The Wonder Years' are some the top syndicated shows that delivered less than their expected ratings. The number of syndicated show hours in 1992 increased to 214 hours, compared to 195 hours of syndicated programming in 1991.
Full Text COPYRIGHT Reed Publishing USA 1992
Advertisers often do not believe ratings projections of syndicators; this season, many shows have not delivered.
This syndication season may be remembered for a huge gap between expectation and reality. Perhaps never before have so many new shows been so hyped only to result in below-expected ratings delivery. And advertisers are not happy.
New shows underdelivering their guarantees include highly touted entries such as Roseanne, Designing Women, Whoopi and The Wonder Years, say advertisers. "Everything is down. Nothing is achieving expectation," says Doug Seay, senior vice president, director of broadcast, Hal Riney & Partners. You Bet Your Life, which is getting about 40% of die ratings promised, has probably underdelivered the most, although it was sold on a sliding cost-per-thousand basis rather than on a guarantee. Advertisers say that for all intents and purposes, it is no different than a guarantee - it still affects their media planning the same way.
Some advertisers say they stayed away from such shows because syndicators
promised too much. Several say they turned down more high-profile shows
this
year than in previous years so as not to be bothered by the problem.
Unrealistic promises of ratings performances and guarantees to match have plagued the syndication business for years, and some say it is getting worse. Advertisers say that most of the time they simply do not believe syndicators' projections and come up with their own. Yet they are increasingly concerned about the disparity between guarantees and reality, saying it wreaks havoc on their media plans. They are not worried about getting the audience they pay for; they say they know they will get that. "The question is: When will you get the audience you pay for? It hurts our reach and frequency objectives," says Marc Goldstein, executive vice president, national broadcast and programing, Lintas U.S.A.
The programs might come closer to expectation levels, some advertisers say, but the syndication business is moving toward all, or mostly, barter deals degree, he also defends the practice, saying "the guarantee system forces us to guarantee high [ratings] for fear of leaving money on the table." Syndicators would end up losing money if their ratings projections were too low, Duncan argues, because advertisers would then get the bonus audiences for free.
Most agency executives say overpromising occurs to initially get the advertiser contracts. This season, it might have happened more often because of the difficult economy. And the syndication ad market did not do as well as expected. ASTA downgraded its ad dollar projections for syndication for 1992 to 5% ($1.34 billion) over 1991 after the upfront concluded in August, down from initial projections of 8%. And those dollar gains must also be considered in context with the additional syndicated inventory this season. The number of weekly hours of syndicated programing this year rose from 196 to 214, a 9% increase, which also means an increase in inventory. In early fringe, for example, available syndicated inventory jumped 15% this season, according to ASTA.
Returning shows also face problems. Many established shows, such as longtime ratings winner Donahue, are down from last year, which ASTA's Duncan attributes to the increase of programing hours this season. "At this point, everybody is elbowing each other for clearances."
ASTA is again forecasting 8% advertising growth for 1993, to $1.45 billion.
But that could depend on whether audience levels do rise. While syndication
is hurting the most, network audience delivery is also down, and there
have been "no surges in cable programing either," according to Richard
Kostyra,
executive vice president, director of media services, J. Walter Thompson.
Kostyra and other agency executives say they are just beginning to examine
why this is happening. Right now, no one seems to know the reason.